Predicting Breakout Seasons: Fact or Fiction?

wily mo pena

The Hardball Times has stated that Boston Redsox’s Outfielder, Wily Mo Pena was voted the major league baseball player most likely to have a break-out season in 2007.

Peter Gammons has predicted breakout seasons before

Here is a writer for the Portland Trailblazers who seems to have some insights
If there is a way to predict the probability of success for something or someone unproven, I think marketers (and VCs) will be all over it.

Yet, when I looked, I could not find any information describing how such a seemingly “break-through” statistic is calculated

My issue is that a breakout season inherently implies RANDOMNESS.

Especially for a player like Wily Mo who is yet to have a solid season, how could such a statistic be calculated? It seems you would need some basis to start with this concept might work using formerly ‘great’ players who are likely to make a comeback Pedro might be a good candidate last year. But for an unproven player?

My questions:

Is this statistic completely arbitrary?

Does it have something to do with the fact that Willie ‘physically’ looks like he should be better than he is? (FYI: Wily is enormous with some serious pipes, but not so many homeruns)

Does this mean that Willie is the player most likely to randomly be good next year?

Is this statistic is actually founded upon a true statistical basis?

Tell me.


You might also enjoy:

Thanks for stopping by!

If you’d like to receive occasional updates and new writings from me sign-up below and never miss an update.